Market Analysis for July 2009

The sizzling summer continues to sell homes.  The trend of homes flying off the shelves remains the same as we have had three straight months of 8000+ homes sold.  Phoenix continues to pace the race with its inventory going down to 3.9 months.  Gilbert is a close second at 4.2 months.

July 2009 Inventory of Homes Available

July 2009 Inventory of Homes Available

11531 pending homes sales in May led to 8291 homes sold in June.  And likewise, 11638 pending homes sales in June led to 8009 homes sold in July.  That is a 72% and 69% closing ratio respectively.  Those numbers in themselves aren’t all that high, but that indicates that we are no longer having the problems of financing fallouts like we did last year.  We also saw 2859 homes bought in cash for the month of July, which means that we are still seeing 36% of the homes being bought in cash.

Status of Homes for the month of July

Status of Homes for the month of July

Active Pending Sold Inventory
Tempe 769 195 171 5.64
Chandler 1233 561 411 4.36
Gilbert 1238 667 454 4.20
Scottsdale 4280 679 566 8.76
Mesa 2462 975 784 4.38
Ahwatukee 505 158 122 5.43
Paradise Valley 499 35 26 20.54
Phoenix 7081 2985 2583 3.90
Maricopa County 26443 10349 8009 4.59

Market Analysis for June 2009

Another month has gone by, and there has been little indication that things will slow down. We see many properties hit the market, and in just a few days, they are gone. Overall, our inventory has gone from 33,621 homes on the market to 27,002 homes. That’s a 20% drop in inventory.  We have gone from 5.52 months of supply to 4.66 months of supply in a very short time.  Additionally, 36.4% of homes are being bought in cash. Overall, 8291 homes sold in Phoenix metro in June.  That is up from 8176 in May.

Real Estate Market Analysis June 2009

Real Estate Market Analysis June 2009

Tempe Real Estate

Tempe specifically has gone from 7.55 months of inventory down to 6.32 months.  What was once 846 houses on the market has become 753 houses.  This is definitely consistent with what my clients have seen.  We have seen many homes that have offers before we even show it.  It certainly feels like 2005 all over again.  It’s gotten to the point that clients that really want to live in Tempe are buying regular resales.  Fortunately, traditional sales are now priced almost like foreclosures.

Real Estate Supply for June 2009

Real Estate Supply for June 2009

Phoenix Metro

Across the board, all the cities have seen a significant drop in supply while keeping demand constant.  Chandler and Gilbert have surpassed Phoenix in supply with 4.18 months and 4.21 months compared to 4.24 months.  Scottsdale and Paradise Valley continue to have longer supplies.  This makes sense as these are our two priciest cities.  Nonetheless, they’ve both had 3 months of supply decreased.

Active Pending Sold Inventory
Tempe 753 221 154 6.32
Chandler 1255 614 447 4.18
Gilbert 1216 731 462 4.21
Scottsdale 4438 784 615 8.49
Mesa 2509 1117 821 4.42
Ahwatukee 494 175 150 4.46
Paradise Valley 524 32 26 21.38
Phoenix 7112 3514 2506 4.24
Maricopa County 27002 11638 8291 4.66

Market Analysis for May 2009

I’m going to say this once, so you’d better listen carefully. There are 33,621 homes available for sale in Phoenix metro today. 33,621!!! Ok, I lied, I didn’t say it once, but what do you expect? This is the lowest we’ve had since…well…our last real estate boom! To appreciate the craziness of this, imagine that we are getting flooded with thousands and thousands of foreclosures every month. On top of that, we had months and months of speculation that the market is plummeting. Even today, many people still ask whether we are at the bottom. Well, if we’re not at the bottom, we’re pretty darn near it! Just this time last year, there were 47,033 homes available for sale.

Real Estate Volume for May 2009

Real Estate Volume for May 2009

Overall, we have five and a half months of inventory in Phoenix metro. With another couple of months like this, we’ll be down to four months of inventory and the craziness we see today will feel like sanity. If you’re actively looking for a home, then you’re certainly well aware that the best homes don’t last a week. So if you find the home that’s right for you, write a good offer. Otherwise, you will be looking for a long time.

In Tempe, we are at 7.55 months of inventory compared to 8.68 months last month. This is especially startling considering last month, we had 456 homes available for sale and today, we have 846. The big difference maker here is that the 160 homes we had pending last month actually led to 140 closings. 140/160 is an excellent ratio because of qualifying issues, inspection issues, and other random life events that occur. Even better news, we have 211 in pending today.

Real Estate Inventory

Real Estate Inventory

The city of Phoenix specifically is doing well at 4.67 months of inventory. A large factor here is that homes less than $100,000 are moving like hotcakes. Because Phoenix is so diverse and large, it has many pockets where good solid homes can be bought for five figures. On the other end of the spectrum is Paradise Valley. They currently have more than 2 years of inventory. Of course, pricing is an issue for two reasons. First, is the fact that jumbo loans are at a much higher interest rate. Jumbo is anything larger than $417,000. The second is the obvious price tag.

Active Pending Sold Inventory
Tempe 846 211 140 7.55
Chandler 1617 622 403 5.56
Gilbert 1707 683 456 5.24
Scottsdale 5184 788 513 11.64
Mesa 3146 1114 735 5.80
Ahwatukee 611 198 129 6.27
Paradise Valley 580 26 24 25.25
Phoenix 8789 3456 2623 4.67
Maricopa County 33621 11531 8176 5.52

Blame Canada!

Is this what we’ve come to?  We’re going to rent from investors from Canada?  According to the New York Times, investment firms are buying hundreds of our homes here in Phoenix as rental properties.  They are buying bank foreclosures and then leasing the properties back to the original borrowers.  In many ways, this works out for all those involved.  Renters have a place to live, and the investors are gaining equity AND cashflow.  This should be a wake up call to local investors that we should be able to take advantage of our local market.  Don’t let outsiders drive up the prices again on us like many of the investors did last time.

100% Financing is Back!

Last October, the Housing Recovery Act of 2008 did away with down payment assistance programs where the seller paid the down payment for the buyer.  Did it make sense to do that while in the midst of a housing crisis?  Of course not!  Well, for a short time, HUD will be undoing the damage they’ve done.  Yesterday, they announced that they will be allowing down payment assistance programs from the US Government!

When you apply for your next FHA loan, you will be afforded the option to get a bridge loan.  This bridge loan will be in the amount of your $8000 first time home buyer tax credit.  This loan will be used directly to pay for your down payment on your first loan.  Effectively, you won’t be paying for this loan, and when you get the tax credit, you pay back the lender.  This makes too much sense!

To read more about this program, go to HUD.

The Recession is OVER

At least, that’s what Warren Buffett says.  According to this article, the recession started some time around December of 2007, and will likely end soon.  History has shown that job losses is a lagging indicator, and so hopefully, job losses will continue their trend of decreasing.  Read more here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090504/ap_on_bi_ge/us_warren_buffett

$15000 Phoenix Grant Update

Great news!  I was able to get my hands on the fact sheet straight from the city of Phoenix.  Here it is in all its entirety:

Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) Homeownership Assistance Fact Sheet

NSP Program Overview

As part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA), passed by Congress in July 2008, $3.92 billion was provided to communities hardest hit by residential foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies. The city of Phoenix received $39,478,000 in Neighborhood Stabilization Program

(NSP) funds to help families purchase foreclosed homes at a discount, which in turn helps stabilize neighborhoods. NSP Homeownership Assistance funds are for down payment and closing cost assistance for eligible homebuyers.

Homeownership Assistance Description

The NSP Homeownership Assistance Program provides a $15,000 loan for down payment and closing cost assistance for buyers of foreclosed homes anywhere in the city of Phoenix. The full amount of the loan is paid back to the city when the homebuyer sells the home or refinances. The program targets foreclosed single family homes, townhouses and condominiums (condo conversions are not eligible) that meet HUD Housing Quality Standards (HSQ). The Homeownership Assistance program is for down payment and closing cost assistance only and cannot be used to fund rehabilitation activities.

Eligible Homebuyer

Eligible families can earn up to 120 percent of area median income (AMI), which is based on family size. In determining a family’s income, all wages and salaries of all family members over age 18 are considered as well as other sources of income.

Family Size 120% AMI Income

1 $53,950

2                         $61,650

3                         $69,350

4                         $77,050

5                         $83,200

6                         $89,400

7                         $95,550

8                         $101,700

Families must be FHA creditworthy and have completed the NSP-required eight-hour Homeownership Education and Credit Assessment counseling. Families must maintain the property as their principal residence.

Eligible Property

To be eligible for NSP Homeownership Assistance funds, properties must meet the following requirements:

  • Located in the city of Phoenix
  • Foreclosed and have changed title
  • Appraised within 60 days of the purchase contract
  • Purchase contract must contain four contingencies:
  • Sales price at least 15 percent below appraised value
  • Property clear of the city’s top eight neighborhood code violations (see phoenix.gov/CLEANPHXltopseng.pdf)
  • Pass inspection according to HQS before close of escrow
  • Signed “Lead Disclosure Form” from seller for properties built pre-Jan. l, 1978

Program Description

The NSP Homeownership Assistance program consists of three-phases – each with very specific requirements:

Home buyer Education and Credit Assessment

  • Complete eight hours of counseling from a HUD-certified housing counselor
  • Receive a Certificate of Completion from the HUD-certified counselor
  • Qualify for a 30 year, fixed rate, amortizing loan (not subprime)

Eligibility Verification

  • Determine income eligibility and invest $1,000 from own funds
  • Find eligible bank.-owned foreclosed property
  • Verify purchase price of at least 15 percent below appraised value

Closing Requirements

  • Sign purchase contract with city required contingencies (see above)
  • Pass Housing Quality Standards (HQS) inspection before close of escrow
  • Completed HUD environmental impact assessment (provided by the city)
  • Lead Disclosure Form signed by seller if property pre-Jan. 1, 1978
  • Obtain three-year Home Warranty contract, not to exceed $1,500
  • Execute city Homeownership Assistance loan documents/agreements

Questions and answers from the NSP Homeownership Assistance Information Session

  • Is the $15,000 loan subject to interest?
    • No. It has to be paid back when the home is sold or the property is refinanced OR if you own the home more than 45 years. If you do own the home 45 years, you can ask the City of Phoenix for another 45 year extension on the $15,000 loan.
  • Can the money be used for repairs?
    • No. For closing costs and down payment only.
  • Can the 203k be used with this program?
    • No, not in this Phase of the program.
  • The appraisal has to be done to determine the value of the home- who pays for this?
    • Typically the home buyer will pay for this unless it is negotiated in the contract.
  • Do we have to follow your guidelines or the Lender’s guidelines for this program?
    • You have to follow both. You have to fall into the income limitations set for this program, the DTI 31 %/41 %, counseling/credit requirements AND the property has to meet the requirements of the HQS. Any additional lending requirements must be met for the loan.
    • NO non-occupying co-signers allowed.
  • Is there a cost for the counseling?
    • Each counseling agency has their policy on the charge for the counseling session. Please contact the HUD-approved counselors for costs.
  • How long will it take to close on a home once I have completed the classes?
    • Once you find a home, it will take a minimum of 45 days from a fully executed contract until closing. Once the assistance documents are signed, it takes a minimum of 10-days to have the funds wired to the escrow company.
  • Who pays for the inspection?
    • The buyer pays for the inspection and any re-inspection that is needed. And the inspector must use the HSQ inspection sheet in order to buyer’s to use this program.
  • What if the seller won’t do the repairs? Can I do them after I move in?
    • If the seller doesn’t do the repairs, the house doesn’t qualify under the currently guidelines and the property isn’t eligible for the program. No, the repairs have to be done by the seller.
  • What if the seller won’t lower the sales price of the home to 15% below the appraised value?
    • The house doesn’t qualify for this program.
  • Is the program based on “need” or can anyone use it for a foreclosed home in the City of Phoenix?
    • The program is not “need” based at this time. You can use FHA/VA loans for this program. This is not for cash buyers at this time.
  • Do I need a 3-year home warranty? Who pays for this?
    • A 3-year home warranty is required for use of this program. The buyer or seller can pay for this. Wasn’t made clear at the meeting if this can be covered by the $15,000 loan.
  • Can I income-qualify alone for my family or does everyone that receives income have to qualify?
    • Everyone that will be living in the home as a principal residence will need to be included under the income requirements. Any SSI, worker’s camp, Pension, etc … will need to be disclosed.
  • Can I own other real estate and use this program?
    • No, you cannot own any other real estate.

Phoenix wants to give you $15000

The City of Phoenix has just announced that they will give you $15000 to buy a foreclosure.  This is even more reason to get off your seat and buy today!  You can use the $15000 however you want.  It can be used towards your downpayment, closing costs, or whatever you would like.  The best part is that you can combine it with the $8000 stimulus bill we just enacted, and end up getting $23,000 just for buying a foreclosure property in Phoenix.  Details are still developing, and I will be happy to answer any of your questions.

We have added another real estate search tool!

As many of you already know, I have spent a lot of time on my website to ensure you the best real estate searching experience on the internet.  Not one to sit by with pure contentment, we at Occasio Realty have moved the bar up once again.  In addition to my personal website, you can now search Occasio Realty for the finest MLS searching online!  Additionally, now we have complete details about the $8000 tax credit for first time home buyers.  Check it out!

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

When our government passed the Housing and Economic Recover Act of 2008, they created an incentive for first time home buyers.  Buyers will be able to claim a tax credit for 10% of the purchase price of their tax return for up to $7500.  2008 is coming to an end, so those that buy next year will be able to claim these tax credits on their 2009 tax return.  Don’t wait forever, though!  There is a deadline of June 30, 2009.

Of course, let me insert the necessary disclaimer here: please consult a tax advisor as I am not a tax professional.